In May of 2022 I was at a conference in Germany and the question I asked everyone was, “how high do milk prices have to go to get EU milk production growing again?”
Like a sign above the bar at my favorite watering hole that says “Free Beer Tomorrow,” I feel like economists have been telling us that “Recession Starts Tomorrow” for more than a year now.
The best and the worst parties share a few characteristics. They both involve a few questionable decisions and an element of surprise — and they don’t end until the authorities show up.
The tricky parts is figuring out whether the 10% drop in prices today
was the blow-off bottom or the 10% drop tomorrow will be the
bottom. Very strong retail sales in the US are keeping physical supplies in balance or a little tight, but consumers are now stocked up
and the retail side will cool down.
Yet again, European Union (EU) intervention stocks of skim milk powder (SMP) have effectively been drawn down to zero. When this happened in 2007, EU and U.S. prices ran up to new record highs.
On May 31, Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. cheese, and then on June 16, China announced retaliatory tariffs against most U.S. dairy products.