Nate Donnay

The outlook for U.S. dairy products in 2025 varies by product. The two with the most-clear trajectories are cheese and skim powders (nonfat dry milk (NFDM)/skim milk powder (SMP)).

If we’re just looking at volume, the export outlook for the second half of 2024 and early 2025 is generally steady, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. 

We have seen some very dramatic fluctuations in dairy farm input costs in the past four years, and while some costs have come down, not all of them have and most remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Global dairy demand in 2023 was weaker than expected, but there were some pockets where demand was better than forecast.

While it is typically obvious when a team wins, loses or ties (although ties are a rarity in sports these days), in the commodity export world, a win depends on how you define it. 

In May of 2022 I was at a conference in Germany and the question I asked everyone was, “how high do milk prices have to go to get EU milk production growing again?” 

Like a sign above the bar at my favorite watering hole that says “Free Beer Tomorrow,” I feel like economists have been telling us that “Recession Starts Tomorrow” for more than a year now.

The Economist magazine says the biggest economic story of 2023 is happening now. 

The future looks bright however.

If recession is looming/already here, how will headwinds impact the dairy industry?