When the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership shortly after President Donald Trump took office last year, it was unclear what would happen next. Would the remaining 11 countries renegotiate or abandon the deal altogether?
Don't get distracted by the headlines in 2018. The renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the U.S.-Korea free trade agreement will demand a lot of attention, but assuming neither of them is wiped off the board completely, growing milk supplies in the other major exporting countries will create the headwind for U.S. exports.
Earlier this year, the European Union and Japan announced a trade agreement in principle that includes dairy market access to Japan. Europe is actively working to establish a trade deal with Mexico in which agriculture and dairy will no doubt be central components. New Zealand is renegotiating a trade agreement with China in large part to improve dairy access terms. New Zealand and Australia are pushing to implement a “Trans-Pacific Partnership light” with eight other countries including Mexico.
The negative repercussions from Canada’s ongoing defiance of its trade obligations are a stark reminder of the critical role exports play in the health and vitality of the U.S. dairy industry.
The long-term prospects for dairy processors and dairy producers look promising because of opportunities at home and abroad. In the short-term, however, the dairy industry faces uncertainty with its trading partners.
Canada is one of our top trading partners, but its flouting of its trade obligations is simply unacceptable. IDFA insists on fair treatment and immediate action by the U.S. government.
International trade was one of the recurring themes offered by President Donald Trump during his campaign and in subsequent remarks following his victory in November. He specifically focused on the need for strict enforcement of trade obligations with our trading partners, and promised that they would be made to play by the rules.
U.S. dairy processors see fewer exports of their cheese and butterfat products. It’s a different story for milk powders, thanks to demand from Mexico and Asia.
It was not long ago that domestic demand afforded dairy producers a premium for their milk compared to their international counterparts. Similarly, domestic end users of dairy products such as cheese and butter can no longer look to the likes of Europe and New Zealand for cheap fat and protein alternatives.