The national milk carton shortage should ease by early 2024, Matt Herrick, senior vice president, executive and strategic communications, International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), told Dairy Foods.

“We are not able to pinpoint a cause of the shortage,” he said. “However, all signs point to the supply challenge easing by early 2024 following holiday breaks at schools, which should give packaging providers and processors time to rebuild stock.”

Herrick added school meals are critical for children, with school breakfast and lunch reaching 30 million students each day in our schools, with milk central to those meals. 

“That is why we are doing everything we can to ensure milk remains on the tray,” Herrick stressed. “As reported, one industry supplier of half-pint milk cartons is not able to fully supply some carton orders in the near term. Based on media reports, that supplier is Pactiv Evergreen, which supplies between two-thirds and three-quarters of the cardboard for half-pint school milk cartons.”

Dairy Foods has reached out to Pactiv Evergreen for comment. We will update this story once a comment is received.

According to IDFA, three packaging providers that supply nearly the entire U.S. school milk market with cartons. “One lesson learned during COVID supply chain challenges that applies here is that our industry must do a better job of building greater resilience into our supply chain. In talking to our members, there is a greater appreciation for diversifying among suppliers to avoid these types of challenges in the future,” Herrick noted.

“We are not aware of any widespread school milk shortages at this time, but the situation remains quite fluid. Shortages at this time seem to be sporadic and localized. We are therefore cautioning all stakeholders who contact us not to panic. Instead, we are encouraging collaboration,” he continued.

Outside of the one packaging company, several other packaging companies have stepped up to increase carton production or form new partnerships with processors, Herrick relayed. “Based on what we’ve heard, school milk processors are seeking out and entering new partnerships with packaging providers.”

The national milk shortage, pinpointed as half-pint milk cartons, has drawn plenty of attention. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer called on the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to take action on the national milk carton shortage hitting dairy farmers and schools in his home state of New York and states across the country. 

Schumer urged the USDA to not only ensure New York dairy farmers have the technical support they need to get through the shortage, but also to work with industry leaders to devise creative solutions to get milk to our school lunchrooms and to investigate the shortage to stop disruptions like this from happening in the future and minimize downstream impacts.

“Milk is an essential part of our students’ school lunches and the lifeblood of our Upstate NY agricultural economy, but with a national milk carton shortage looming over our schools, now is the time for the USDA to step up to ensure our farmers get more support to continue their essential work. That is why I am calling on the USDA to start to work with industry leaders to address this shortage we are seeing nationwide and provide all the leadership and technical support needed to help our New York dairy farmers,” said Sen. Schumer. “The USDA is uniquely positioned to investigate this problem from a national level and work with the dairy industry, our farmers, and schools to mitigate the impacts of shortages and propose solutions.”

“Given the potential downstream impacts of disruptions to the milk packaging supply chain we also need the USDA to investigate the causes of this carton shortage to determine how we can avoid further disruptions to our dairy farmers and any further steps we can be taking to mitigate problems of this nature in the future,” Schumer added.

Outside of new partnerships, here is how school milk processors are managing, Herrick noted.

• At least one processor in possession of excess stock has released some of that excess carton stock to another processor to get them through any rough patches. 

• Processors are also offering fewer SKUs—primarily 1% white, 1% chocolate and skim chocolate—which is helpful to the packaging companies and processors to meet needs in the short term. 

• Processors are also working with schools to offer half-gallons and gallons and other sizes to ensure milk is on the tray as half-pint carton supplies are replenished. 

• Some schools are offering shelf-stable milk (aseptic).

• Some schools are installing bulk milk dispensers.

• Some schools are offering more juice and water along with milk; some are offering juice and water exclusively, although this is not ideal for child nutrition, and we are encouraging processors and schools to find ways to keep milk on the tray. 

Offering different types of milk and different container sizes of milk is possible because USDA has given all schools emergency authorities to do so, similar to the situation under COVID, Herrick revealed. “USDA issued a memo almost three weeks ago reminding states and local schools that they can serve different varieties of milk as well as different container sizes to fulfill the milk requirement in school meals using their emergency authorities, should they need to.”

The Upstate Niagara Cooperative is offering half-gallons of milk to schools as an alternative as one example. “Our 260 dairy farm families are encouraged by our team’s efforts to continue to supply our milk to our school customers,” said John T. Gould, Upstate Niagara Cooperative president and chairman. “It has required hard work, coordination and cooperation to meet their needs. We thank Senator Schumer for his support in recognizing the critical importance of milk in the nutritional needs of children and adults.  We appreciate his efforts and concern in solving this packaging dilemma in a timely fashion.”

Herrick reiterated there are abundant milk supplies across the country, with Schumer stating “There is no shortage of milk.” “This is not a dairy farmer issue. This is not a milk processor issue. This is not a school issue. This is a packaging issue,” Herrick concluded. “That is why we are encouraging schools to do everything they can to ensure milk is available for all students. No child should go without milk.”